Se refiere al tipo y grado, o
naturaleza, a la que un sistema está expuesto a variaciones climáticas
significativas.
El análisis de cambio climático observado se relaciona con cambios del comportamiento de la precipitación, temperatura, y de eventos extremos. Ese análisis se debe basar en:
Clima observado
- Control de calidad de
datos observados, homogeneización de la base de datos - Climatología actual y
variabilidad climática. - Análisis de tendencia
para temperatura, precipitación y eventos extremos
Escenarios de cambio climático
Los escenarios de cambio climático son una representación plausible y a menudo simplificada del clima futuro, basados en un conjunto internamente coherente de relaciones climatológicas, que se construyen para ser utilizados de forma explícita en la investigación de las consecuencias potenciales del cambio climático antropogénico, y que sirven a menudo de insumo para las simulaciones de los impactos. Estos escenarios no son pronósticos climáticos, ya que cada escenario es una alternativa de cómo se puede comportar el clima futuro.
Sensibilidad
Hace referencia al grado en que un
sistema resulta afectado, positiva o negativamente, por la variabilidad o el
cambio climático. Los efectos pueden ser directos (por ejemplo, un cambio en el
rendimiento de los cultivos en respuesta a una variación de la temperatura
media, de los intervalos de temperaturas o de la variabilidad de la
temperatura) o indirectos (por ejemplo, daños causados por una mayor frecuencia
de inundaciones costeras por haber aumentado el nivel del mar).
Impacto potencial del cambio
climático en regiones previamente determinadas y en sectores prioritarios en la
zona de estudio La valoración de dichos impactos deberá realizarse con
métodos rigurosos, robustos y replicables, los cuales deberán ser explicados
claramente.
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